Surprise Emissary Advancing Ukraine Ceasefire Plan Highlights Vance Influence on American Foreign Policy
America's Secretary of the Army, Dan Driscoll, was an unlikely diplomat for the White House's latest proposal to end the conflict in Ukraine. His strong relationship with JD Vance has placed a close associate of the Eurosceptic VP at the center of President Trump's recent effort to conclude the conflict.
Before his last week's visit to Kyiv, Driscoll was not known as a negotiator or diplomat, and his initial efforts to promote the deal to European policymakers were described as chaotic.
Driscoll's close relationship with Vance, who he studied and shares a personal bond, indicate the rising influence of the isolationist VP in talks to end the Ukraine war.
The VP's Role in Peace Efforts
It was Vance who intervened during Ukraine's president's disastrous first trip to the Trump White House in March and demanded he show Trump more respect. Now, Ukraine is once again resisting demands from the US to accept a quick deal that Ukrainian leaders have described as a surrender.
After a tumultuous initial year in power, international decisions in the White House are reportedly shaped by a small group of Trump's top advisers, including chief of staff Susie Wiles, rightwing advisor Stephen Miller, diplomat Steve Witkoff, secretary of state Marco Rubio, and of course Vance.
Vance has been a vocal advocate of the latest proposal, which was crafted by Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, alongside the Russian diplomat Kirill Dmitriev.
“Every criticism of the ceasefire plan the administration is working on either misinterprets the proposal or misrepresents some critical reality on the ground,” Vance stated.
Early Attempts and EU Reactions
Vance's initial attempts at negotiating a ceasefire agreement with Russia, while simultaneously attempting to restore relations with Moscow, were fruitless and left his team feeling disappointed with their Russian counterparts. Leaders in Europe, in turn, were angered by his early speeches, in which he accused them of ignoring their constituents, who Vance claimed held anti-immigration and right-leaning positions similar to those of Trump's own supporters.
But, the new peace deal closely resembled his positions, and he has been one of the most forceful spokespeople for the deal in the government, even as the US has been criticized for endorsing a peace framework that mostly resembles Vladimir Putin's maximalist demands.
In social media updates this past weekend, Vance argued that a ceasefire agreement would have to establish a ceasefire that respected Ukrainian independence, be acceptable to each party, and stop the war from restarting.
“A ceasefire won’t be made by failed negotiators or politicians living in a fantasy land,” he continued. “An agreement might be made by smart people living in the real world.”
It was Vance who continued on the presentation of the ceasefire proposal in a phone call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump had mainly instructed his staff with securing a signature on the ceasefire accord before Thanksgiving this Thursday in the United States.
The Secretary of State's Response and Private Doubts
Vance's stance was a notably more enthusiastic support of the proposal than that expressed by the secretary of state and national security adviser, Marco Rubio, a more traditional hardliner in the government who has transitioned from a uncertain position inside the administration to more firm footing.
Rubio was a member of a US delegation that traveled to Geneva this weekend to confer with Ukrainian leaders to help moderate the initial 28-point peace plan in order to make it more palatable to authorities in Kyiv.
But, his initial reaction to the deal was tepid:
“Ending a complicated and deadly war such as the one in Ukraine demands an thorough discussion of substantive and pragmatic proposals,” Rubio stated recently. “And, securing a durable ceasefire will necessitate both sides to consent to difficult but necessary compromises. That is why we are and will persist to develop a list of possible solutions for ending this war drawing from input from each party of this war.”
In private, he was reportedly much more doubtful of the proposal. The Republican senator Mike Rounds said last week at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia that Rubio had contacted legislators to explain that the deal was merely a preliminary offer from the Russians and not an plan advocated by the White House.
“Rubio did make a phone call to us this day and I think he made it very clear to us that we are the receivers of a proposal that was presented to one of our officials,” said Rounds. “The document is not our suggestion, it is not our peace plan.”
Rubio moved quickly to fall in line. “This ceasefire plan was written by the US,” he subsequently wrote. “It is offered as a solid framework for continuing discussions. The proposal is based on input from the Moscow. But, it is additionally based on earlier and current contributions from Ukraine.”